The global aquarium industry, like the rest of the world, is feeling the effects of the war in Iran. While much of the global focus has centred on energy markets, the implications for logistics, input costs, and supply chain stability are already becoming evident across the aquarium trade. For an industry that depends on precision logistics, reliable transport networks, and tight operating margins, these developments represent a significant emerging challenge. To put this into perspective, in the past few weeks we have seen:

• Oil prices have increased from approximately US$70 per barrel to US$95–100, with spikes above US$120 in recent weeks
• Around 20-30% of global oil supply transits through Middle East routes currently affected by instability
• Freight costs are rising due to rerouting, increased fuel surcharges, and reduced cargo capacity
• Packaging materials derived from oil, including plastics and polystyrene, are experiencing significant cost increases

These pressures are now flowing directly into the aquarium industry with significant impacts.

Freight and Logistics Disruption: Air freight remains the most critical pressure point for the aquarium industry. The disruptions to key Middle East transit hubs, particularly from Asia to Europe, with as much as 50% reduction in flights  have resulted in reduced cargo capacity, longer transit routes, and increased complexity in global shipping networks. While some flight routes are beginning to resume, availability remains inconsistent and highly dependent on region.

Feedback from industry participants highlights:

• Difficulty securing space on key cargo routes – globally an estimated 15-20% reduction in capacity
• Rerouting through alternative hubs, increasing transit times
• Reduced airline liability coverage for live animal shipments in certain corridors

These factors collectively increase both cost and operational risk, particularly for live fish exports where timing and stability are essential.

Fuel, Packaging and Input Costs: The rise in oil prices is having a cascading effect across the supply chain and are directly impacting freight rates, while also raising domestic transport and production costs. At the same time, key materials such as LDPE bags, liners, and expanded polystyrene (EPS) boxes — all essential for live fish transport — are experiencing price increases of 30–50% in some regions. There is also growing concern that the availability of petroleum based polymers for manufacturing of these packaging materials will not keep pace with demand leading to these products running out.

In addition, producers are reporting rising costs for inputs such as frozen feed and other production materials, further tightening margins across the value chain.

Supply and Market Conditions: Despite these pressures, market conditions remain relatively stable in the short term, although early signs of strain are emerging. In some regions, freight increases of approximately 8–10% are being reported, while in others, access to flights remains a more significant constraint than cost alone. As input and transport costs rise, these costs will be passed through to consumers which will likely lead to a softening in the market, particularly if inflation begins to rise

Industry Perspectives: Insights from OFI members across key regions provide valuable on-the-ground context:

• Sri Lanka: Initial fuel shortages have stabilised, however freight remains elevated and securing cargo space on Middle East routes continues to be challenging
• Israel and Europe: Flight routes are gradually resuming, with moderate freight increases (approximately 8–10%) and stable demand conditions
• Japan: Significant increases in packaging costs (30–50%), alongside rising transport costs and early signs of reduced consumer spending
• Indonesia: Higher freight costs, reduce airline liability for livestock, and increased production costs linked to plastics and feed inputs
• Europe: Freight rerouting through alternative hubs is increasing costs, with early indications that broader inflationary pressures may begin to affect consumer behaviour

These perspectives highlight both the global nature of the disruption and the variability of impacts across regions.

Operational and Welfare Considerations: Longer transit times and more complex logistics chains are also increasing operational risks. For live fish shipments, this includes greater exposure to stress, variability in transit conditions, and potential increases in mortality rates. Its likely that many operators will need to reduce packing densities as a result, again impacting on landed costs. This reinforces the importance of maintaining reliable logistics networks, not only for commercial viability but also for ensuring appropriate animal welfare standards are upheld throughout the supply chain.

Implications for the Industry: The current situation represents a convergence of multiple pressures rather than a single disruption. The combined effects of rising energy costs, freight constraints, and increasing input prices are placing strain on a system that relies heavily on efficiency and predictability. Couple this with rising costs through the supply impacting retail prices, increased inflation and softening of consumer demand, the aquarium industry potential medium-term impacts may include:

• Gradual increases in retail pricing
• Reduced availability of certain high-volume species
• Shifts in trade patterns and sourcing strategies
• Increased focus on supply chain resilience and regionalisation

Looking ahead: The situation remains fluid, and further impacts on freight, energy, and material inputs are likely in the coming months. OFI will continue to monitor developments closely and engage with members across regions to ensure that emerging challenges are clearly understood and effectively communicated. We encourage members to share their experiences and insights as conditions evolve.